We don’t report
the news.
We analyze what the money is
already anticipating.
Probability Journal is an analytical journal built on prediction markets, primarily Polymarket.
Enter the JournalThe Core Question
"If this future scenario happens,
how does capital move?"
What is a probability signal?
Prediction markets aggregate thousands of independent views — legal, political, economic — into a single number: a probability.
That probability reflects how informed participants are positioning today.
It is not certainty.
It is not truth.
Expectation priced with money.
See the map before the move
For each selected signal, we analyze:
Why this scenario matters economically
Who could benefit and who could be hurt
Where capital could move next
What the market may be underestimating
How timing and surprise matter
We help you see the map before the move.
Why we don’t publish every day
"Silence is part of the signal."
Good probability signals are rare. Most events have weak financial impact or are already fully priced.
Our Strict Criteria
- Clear economic consequences
- Defined time horizon
- Potential capital reallocation
- Silence is part of the signal
Is this for you?
It is for readers who:
- •Think in scenarios, not certainties
- •Care about macro, trade, and capital flows
- •Want to understand consequences early
It is NOT:
- • A news site
- • Daily noise
- • Political commentary
- • Investment advice
"If you are looking for answers, this is not the place. If you are looking for better questions, welcome."
The Editorial Promise
Every article must answer one question clearly:
Why does this future scenario matter financially?
Probability Journal
Reading the future through capital, not headlines.